Rightmove house price forecast shifts to a possible 2% fall in 2026

What happened

Rightmove’s house price forecast now allows for a fall of up to 2% across the UK by the end of 2026, replacing its earlier expectation of growth. In an update published on 10 September 2026, the property portal put the likely national movement between no change and a 2% decline.

The revision follows Rightmove’s August 2026 House Price Index, which showed average asking prices were 1% lower than a year earlier. That figure describes the annual position in August, while the revised forecast looks towards the end of the year. Neither means every home has lost, or will lose, the same proportion of its value.

Rightmove identified three influences on its revised outlook: recent asking-price and affordability data, the potential effect of the Budget expected at the end of October, and unexpected international events affecting borrowing costs. Its update did not set out particular Budget measures or estimate their individual effect on prices.

For buyers and sellers, an important distinction is what the figures measure. Rightmove’s August index tracks asking prices, and its original forecast explicitly concerned asking prices; these are sellers’ advertised expectations, not necessarily the amounts buyers eventually pay. Rightmove also cautions that forecasts and past price movements cannot reliably establish future outcomes.

The national outlook conceals opposing regional trends, according to Rightmove. Its August figures showed annual price growth in Scotland and the north of England, but falls in London and the south of England. The portal therefore warns against treating its UK forecast as a guide to the likely movement in an individual neighbourhood.

The background

Rightmove made its original prediction in December 2025, when it expected UK asking prices to rise by 2% during 2026. It says that assessment reflected the housing data and economic outlook available towards the end of 2025. The September update retains the earlier prediction so readers can distinguish the original expectation from the revised position.

Local affordability is the strongest influence on the price differences Rightmove currently sees between areas. It says places with lower average property prices have generally proved more resilient because homes remain within reach of more buyers. Higher-priced markets, including London and the south east, have experienced declines overall.

The supply of homes also changes the balance between buyers and sellers, according to Rightmove. London had its largest choice of properties available to buy since 2010 in the August index. The portal says that breadth of choice puts pressure on sellers to set competitive asking prices rather than assume buyers have few alternatives.

Rightmove says mortgage costs directly affect demand because changes in repayments alter what households can afford to borrow and spend. A lower advertised property price therefore does not, by itself, establish whether a purchase is more affordable. The same distinction is explored in Property Pulse UK’s coverage of family-home affordability and mortgage rates.

Rightmove also identifies the relationship between demand and available stock as an influence on prices. Where demand is stronger and fewer homes are on offer, it says prices generally hold steadier than in markets with plentiful choice. Price negotiations are examined separately in Property Pulse UK’s reporting on sale rates and asking-price gaps for £2m-plus homes.

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What people are saying

Rightmove property expert Colleen Babcock said the first half of 2026 had been harder for the housing market than many had anticipated. In comments originally included in the August index, she attributed some of that difficulty to the unexpected war in Iran. She said it had contributed to higher mortgage rates and greater uncertainty among buyers.

Babcock nevertheless pointed to evidence that many sellers had found buyers without first cutting their advertised price. According to her August comments, nearly three-quarters of homes sold during 2026 up to that point had not needed an asking-price reduction. That is a statement about advertised price changes, not confirmation that every buyer paid the full asking price.

For first-time buyers, Babcock identified building a deposit as the largest remaining obstacle for many households. Once buyers have that money, she said, the position is more encouraging because they have a broad selection of homes to consider. Her assessment draws on the choice of properties recorded in Rightmove’s August index rather than a guarantee of availability in every area.

Babcock also said changes to lenders’ affordability criteria had improved conditions, while wages had grown faster than house prices in many parts of the country. Rightmove cited Bank of England material on lending rules and Office for National Statistics wage data, without giving detailed figures in the update. The lending backdrop is covered in Property Pulse UK’s explanation of changes to high loan-to-income mortgage limits.

For sellers, Rightmove’s position is that realistic pricing and good presentation remain important when buyers have substantial information and a wide choice. It recommends using comparable local sales and estate agents’ knowledge to judge demand. The emphasis is on evidence about competing homes and completed transactions, rather than applying the national forecast mechanically to a property.

What happens next

The next policy event identified in Rightmove’s update is the Budget, expected at the end of October. Its possible impact is part of the portal’s outlook, but the update does not predict a particular tax change. As of 15 October 2026, that event remains ahead, so the forecast should not be read as an assessment of announced Budget decisions.

Mortgage rates will remain another influence to watch, according to Rightmove. It says their direction depends on inflation, interest-rate decisions, competition between lenders and international events that affect lenders’ borrowing costs. The update does not offer a mortgage-rate forecast or specify how far rates would need to move to change its house-price outlook.

For households preparing to buy, Rightmove recommends comparing mortgage products and considering their costs and risks alongside conditions in the local housing market. It also suggests speaking to a mortgage broker. These are separate checks from assessing an asking price: the amount a household can finance depends on the mortgage available to it, not simply the national price trend.

Owners trying to establish a selling price can look at achieved local sale prices, Rightmove says. It also offers automated estimates but warns that these are not formal valuations and may differ from the price a property ultimately achieves. Its guidance is to seek advice from a local estate agent about the circumstances of the particular home.

Rightmove says it will release its 2027 house price forecast before the end of 2026, although it gives no publication date. It directs readers seeking newer monthly evidence to its latest House Price Index. The September forecast remains a conditional outlook, with Rightmove stressing that location, property type and individual circumstances all affect the market a buyer or seller encounters.

Why this matters

Rightmove’s revised outlook makes local evidence more useful than a single national prediction for households planning a move. Its figures show that prices can rise in some regions while falling in others, and mortgage costs can change affordability independently of asking prices. For sellers, the portal emphasises realistic pricing based on nearby sales and demand. For buyers, its guidance is to compare borrowing options and costs rather than assume a forecast price fall makes a purchase affordable.